Your due date represents the estimated day your baby will arrive, though only about 5% of babies are born on this exact date. Understanding how due dates are calculated, what influences their accuracy, and the normal delivery window helps set realistic expectations for when you'll meet your baby. This knowledge reduces anxiety about "going overdue" and helps you prepare appropriately for labor and delivery.
Due Date Range vs. Specific Date
Full-term pregnancy spans from 37 to 42 weeks, representing a 5-week range during which delivery is considered normal and healthy. Only about 70% of babies arrive within the week before or after their due date, while 30% arrive outside this narrow window but still within the healthy full-term range.
Approximately 10% of babies arrive during weeks 37-38 (early term), 70% during weeks 39-40 (full term), and 15% during weeks 41-42 (late term). Only about 5% of pregnancies reach 42 weeks, at which point induction is typically recommended due to increased risks.
First-time mothers tend to deliver later than experienced mothers, with first babies averaging 40 weeks and 5 days. Women who've given birth before average closer to 40 weeks and 3 days. This difference likely reflects more efficient cervical ripening and stronger contractions in subsequent pregnancies.
Maternal age influences delivery timing, with teenage mothers more likely to deliver preterm and mothers over 35 slightly more likely to go past their due dates. Maternal health conditions, particularly gestational diabetes and preeclampsia, often necessitate delivery before the due date.
Multiple gestations rarely reach 40 weeks. Twin pregnancies average 36 weeks, triplets about 33 weeks, and higher-order multiples even earlier. The uterus reaches capacity sooner with multiple babies, often triggering labor before full term.
When Due Dates Get Adjusted
Providers may adjust due dates based on early ultrasound findings that differ significantly from LMP-based dates. If your LMP suggests 10 weeks but ultrasound measurements indicate 12 weeks, your due date would be adjusted to match the ultrasound, making you 2 weeks more pregnant than you thought.
These adjustments occur most reliably when based on first trimester ultrasounds. A CRL measurement indicating 9 weeks when LMP suggests 11 weeks would result in adjusting the due date back by 2 weeks, assuming the early ultrasound is more accurate than LMP recall.
Due dates shouldn't be adjusted based on third trimester ultrasounds unless there's clear evidence of dating error. A baby measuring large or small in the third trimester usually reflects growth patterns rather than dating mistakes. Changing the due date based on late ultrasounds can lead to inappropriate intervention.
IVF pregnancies use exact conception dates for due date calculation. The due date is calculated as 266 days (38 weeks) from the date of embryo retrieval and fertilization, or for frozen embryo transfers, 266 days minus the embryo's age at freezing. This provides extremely accurate dating.
Assisted reproductive technology also affects calculations based on embryo transfer timing. A 5-day-old embryo (blastocyst) transferred on May 1 has a due date calculated as if conception occurred on April 27, with 266 days added to that backdated conception date.